Global Warming and a Green Model: CSS Solved Answer

Exam question: CSS 2024, Q5: Global warming presents an existential threat to states like Pakistan. Examine the far-reaching impacts of global warming on Pakistan and propose a model of economic development that aligns with environmental protection.

Syllabus topic: Topic XI of the CSS Pakistan Affairs syllabus.

Short answer

Outline for quick revision

Introduction
Why Pakistan Is So Vulnerable: Geography; Economy and society; Governance
Far-reaching Impacts of Global Warming on Pakistan: Floods and loss of life; Economic losses; Food security and agriculture; Water security; Heatwaves and health; Displacement and urban stress; Coastal and environmental degradation; Security and stability
Pakistan’s Response So Far: Policies and pledges; Climate diplomacy; Climate finance; Gaps
A Model of Development Aligned with Environmental Protection: Climate-Resilient Green Growth: Clean energy transition; Climate-smart agriculture and water; Resilient infrastructure and cities; Green finance; Integrated planning and governance; Green jobs and human capital
Critical Appraisal of the Model
Conclusion

Reference colours:
Quotation / documentPersonality / historySyllabus bookCurrent referenceOfficial report / policy

1. Introduction

Global warming is no longer a distant scientific forecast for Pakistan; it is a lived emergency. Floods, heatwaves, droughts and melting glaciers now destroy lives, crops and infrastructure almost every year. It is a non-traditional security threat that can weaken the state as much as any army.

The injustice is stark: Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global emissions but is among the most affected countries. The question has two parts, impacts and a development model, so this answer gives roughly equal weight to both. It argues that Pakistan needs a climate-resilient green growth model in which development and environmental protection reinforce each other.

Current reference: Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index 2025 (February 2025) ranked Pakistan the most climate-affected country in the world in 2022, although Pakistan produces less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Why Pakistan Is So Vulnerable

Geography

Pakistan has more than 7,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya, the largest ice reserves outside the polar regions. Almost all its water comes from a single river system, the Indus, fed by these glaciers and the monsoon. Rising temperatures therefore threaten its whole water supply, while its plains and coast are exposed to floods, heat and sea-level rise.

Economy and society

Agriculture employs a large share of the workforce and depends directly on weather and water. A fast-growing population, widespread poverty and weak infrastructure mean that people have few savings or protections when disaster strikes. Each shock therefore pushes millions back into poverty.

Governance

A natural hazard becomes a disaster when governance is weak. Poor early-warning systems, unplanned cities, deforestation and illegal construction on riverbeds and floodplains have multiplied the damage of every flood and heatwave in Pakistan.

3. Far-reaching Impacts of Global Warming on Pakistan

Floods and loss of life

The 2022 floods, caused by extreme monsoon rains and glacier melt, submerged about a third of the country and became the clearest example of climate catastrophe anywhere. More deadly floods followed in 2025, showing that such disasters are now recurring, not rare.

“I have never seen climate carnage on this scale.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, visiting flood-hit Pakistan, September 2022

Official report / policy: The Post-Disaster Needs Assessment of the 2022 floods (Government of Pakistan with the World Bank, ADB, EU and UN, October 2022) put damages at $14.9 billion and economic losses at $15.2 billion, with reconstruction needs of $16.3 billion; more than 33 million people were affected and about 1,700 died.

Current reference: The floods of August 2025 killed more than 900 people and displaced about 4 million, destroying crops and livestock (Human Rights Watch, World Report 2026).

Economic losses

Every major disaster destroys roads, homes, crops and factories, cuts growth and forces the government to borrow for relief and reconstruction. Repeated shocks therefore deepen Pakistan’s debt and push its economy back again and again, making climate change an economic as well as an environmental threat.

Official report / policy: The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report for Pakistan (November 2022) warned that climate change and environmental degradation could cut GDP by 18-20% a year by 2050, and estimated that Pakistan needs $348 billion (2023-2030), $152 billion for adaptation and $196 billion for decarbonisation.

Food security and agriculture

Heatwaves at the time of the wheat harvest, erratic rainfall and floods cut yields of wheat, rice and cotton and kill livestock. Lower output raises food prices and forces imports, so Pakistan, once a food basket, now struggles with food security and food inflation.

Water security

Faster glacier melt first brings floods and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the north, and in the long run threatens to reduce river flows as glaciers shrink. Groundwater is already being over-pumped. Climate stress adds to the threat created by India’s stance on the Indus Waters Treaty, making water Pakistan’s most serious long-term vulnerability.

Current reference: After the Pahalgam attack, India placed the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) “in abeyance” on 23 April 2025; Pakistan’s National Security Committee declared that any attempt to stop or divert its water would be treated as an act of war. The river dispute that began when the 1947 boundary left key headworks in India is still unresolved.

Heatwaves and health

Cities such as Jacobabad have recorded some of the highest temperatures on earth, close to the limit of human survival. Heatstroke kills workers and the elderly, and dengue, malaria and water-borne diseases spread after every flood, overwhelming a weak health system.

Displacement and urban stress

When floods and droughts destroy rural livelihoods, people move to cities such as Karachi and Lahore. This unplanned migration increases slums, unemployment and pressure on water, housing and transport, and can create new social tensions.

Coastal and environmental degradation

Reduced river flows allow sea water to intrude into the Indus delta, destroying farmland and drinking water. In Punjab, winter smog now closes schools and harms health, while forests, wetlands and wildlife are being lost. Environmental degradation and climate change reinforce each other.

Security and stability

Climate shocks deepen poverty, sharpen disputes between provinces over water, and can fuel unrest and extremism in neglected regions. Climate change is therefore a threat multiplier: it makes every existing security problem worse, which is why it is a non-traditional threat to national security.

4. Pakistan’s Response So Far

Policies and pledges

Pakistan has a National Climate Change Policy, a National Adaptation Plan (2023) and pledges under the Paris Agreement. These documents set out the right goals, adaptation, clean energy and disaster preparedness, but depend heavily on international finance.

Official report / policy: In its NDC 3.0 (September 2025) under the Paris Agreement, Pakistan pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below business-as-usual by 2035, 17% unconditionally and 33% conditional on about $565 billion of international finance.

Climate diplomacy

As chair of the G77 and China in 2022, Pakistan led the developing countries’ campaign at COP27 for a Loss and Damage Fund, which was agreed there. This was a major diplomatic success for the principle of climate justice, that polluters should help the victims.

Climate finance

Pakistan has begun to link its economic programme to climate goals. The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility provides finance in return for climate reforms such as disaster-risk planning and greener public investment.

Current reference: Pakistan’s current $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (37 months, approved September 2024), with a $1.4 billion climate Resilience and Sustainability Facility, is its latest of more than twenty IMF programmes since 1958. On 8 October 2026 the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review, unlocking about $1.2 billion (total disbursed about $5.7 billion), on conditions including a primary surplus of 2% of GDP, tax reform, phasing out fuel subsidies, timely energy tariff adjustments, privatisation, a tight monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate.

Gaps

Despite good policies, implementation remains weak. Finance is limited and slow, coordination between the federal government and provinces is poor after the 18th Amendment, and unplanned construction in flood zones continues. Policy on paper has not yet become resilience on the ground.

5. A Model of Development Aligned with Environmental Protection: Climate-Resilient Green Growth

Clean energy transition

Pakistan spends billions of dollars a year importing oil, gas and coal for power. Shifting to solar, wind and hydro would save foreign exchange, cut emissions and, over time, make electricity cheaper. Pakistan’s citizens have already started the change themselves; the state must now reform the grid and tariffs to support it.

Current reference: Pakistan’s solar boom: households and businesses imported about 45 GW of mostly Chinese solar panels over five or six years, roughly equal to the whole grid’s capacity, and grid demand fell by 4-5% in a year (Yale Environment 360, July 2025).

Syllabus book: Robert M. Hathaway and Michael Kugelman (eds.), Powering Pakistan (2009), argue that Pakistan’s energy crisis is mainly a crisis of governance, pricing and planning rather than a lack of resources.

Climate-smart agriculture and water

Agriculture uses over 90% of Pakistan’s water, much of it wastefully. Drip and sprinkler irrigation, heat-tolerant seeds, crop diversification, canal lining, fair water pricing and groundwater regulation can raise yields while saving water. Small and medium dams and recharge ponds can capture floodwater for dry seasons.

Six pillars of climate-resilient green growth

Clean energy: solar, wind, hydro
Climate-smart farming and water: efficient irrigation, resilient crops
Nature-based solutions: forests, mangroves, wetlands
Resilient infrastructure and cities: zoning, early warning
Green finance: climate funds, green bonds, carbon markets
Governance and people: data, provinces, communities

Healthy forests, rangelands, wetlands and mangroves absorb floodwater, protect coasts and store carbon at low cost. The Living Indus initiative (named a UN World Restoration Flagship in 2024) and the expansion of mangroves in Sindh show how ecology and livelihoods can grow together, creating jobs in local communities.

Resilient infrastructure and cities

Reconstruction after floods must “build back better” rather than rebuild in the same vulnerable places. Construction in floodplains and riverbeds should be banned, and roads, bridges, dams and housing designed for future climate risks. Early-warning systems and well-funded disaster-management authorities save lives at a fraction of the cost of relief.

Green finance

Pakistan cannot finance adaptation through more expensive loans. It should mobilise grants from climate funds and the Loss and Damage Fund, issue green bonds, earn from carbon markets and negotiate debt-for-nature swaps. Climate finance should reward results rather than add to unsustainable debt.

Integrated planning and governance

Climate goals must be built into every development plan and budget, not treated as a separate “environment” issue. This needs coordination between the federal government and provinces, reliable climate data and the participation of local communities, who understand their own risks best.

Syllabus book: Ziad Alahdad, Pakistan’s Energy Sector: From Crisis to Crisis, Breaking the Chain (PIDE, 2012), attributes recurring energy crises to delays, weak implementation and reform reversals, and calls for Integrated Energy Planning.

Green jobs and human capital

The green transition can create millions of jobs. Training young people in solar installation, energy efficiency, sustainable construction and climate services would turn Pakistan’s youth bulge into a green workforce and link climate action with employment.

6. Critical Appraisal of the Model

The model faces real constraints: limited fiscal space and high debt, dependence on international finance that has been slow to arrive, the cost of stranded fossil-fuel power plants, and weak implementation capacity. But the cost of inaction is far higher: one flood season can wipe out years of growth. Green growth is therefore not a luxury for Pakistan but the cheapest path to survival.

7. Conclusion

Global warming threatens Pakistan’s lives, economy, food and water, health, cities and national security, truly an existential threat for a country that did little to cause it. Pakistan must continue to demand climate justice and finance, but it must also change its own path of development. A climate-resilient green growth model, clean energy, climate-smart agriculture and water, nature-based solutions, resilient infrastructure, green finance and integrated governance, can protect the environment while creating jobs and growth. For Pakistan, protecting the environment is no longer a choice; it is national security.

Global Warming and a Green Model: CSS 2024 Solved Answer