Youth Bulge in Pakistan: CSS Solved Answer

Exam question: CSS 2023, Q8: Pakistan is considered to be the fifth-largest youth bulge country in the world. Given this youth bulge, deliberate on ways forward for Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan.

Syllabus topic: Topic XXVIII of the CSS Pakistan Affairs syllabus.

Short answer

Outline for quick revision

Introduction
The Opportunity: A Demographic Dividend: A large workforce; Digital natives; Lessons from East Asia
The Challenge: Why the Dividend Is at Risk: Unemployment and brain drain; Weak education and skills; Exclusion of young women; Slow, unstable growth; Frustration and polarisation
Ways Forward for Sustainable Economic Development: Skills and human capital; Job creation; Sustainable and inclusive growth; Youth voice and stability
Conclusion

Reference colours:
Quotation / documentPersonality / historySyllabus bookCurrent referenceOfficial report / policy

1. Introduction

A youth bulge occurs when a large share of a country’s population is young, usually because of high fertility in the recent past. Pakistan has one of the largest youth populations in the world: about two-thirds of its people are under 30, and millions enter the working-age population every year.

Such a bulge can bring a demographic dividend, faster growth because there are more workers than dependants, as it did in East Asia; or a demographic disaster of unemployment, frustration and instability. The question asks for ways forward, so after explaining the opportunity and the challenge, this answer gives the main weight to a strategy. Its argument is that Pakistan can turn its youth bulge into a dividend only through skills, jobs, digital and green growth, women’s participation and youth voice.

Official report / policy: UNDP’s Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017, Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan (launched May 2018), found that 64% of Pakistanis are under 30 and 29% are aged 15-29, the largest youth population in the country’s history, and warned that this bulge becomes a dividend only if young people get education, jobs and a meaningful voice.

2. The Opportunity: A Demographic Dividend

A large workforce

A young population means a growing labour force and fewer dependants per worker, which can raise savings, investment and growth if the young are employed productively.

Digital natives

Young Pakistanis are quick to adopt technology; Pakistan is already among the world’s leading sources of online freelancers, and IT and IT-enabled services exports have been growing.

Current reference: Pakistan’s median age is about 20.6 years; it has about 117 million internet users and 79.9 million social media user identities (DataReportal, Digital 2026, data to late 2025).

Lessons from East Asia

South Korea, China and others used their youth bulges to become manufacturing and technology powers by investing heavily in education, skills and export industries.

3. The Challenge: Why the Dividend Is at Risk

Unemployment and brain drain

The economy is not creating enough jobs for young people, and many of the most skilled are leaving the country.

Current reference: The Labour Force Survey 2024-25 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics) put unemployment at 7.1%, with more than 8 million people jobless out of a labour force of about 77 million; meanwhile more than 762,000 Pakistanis went abroad for work in 2025, including about 3,800 doctors and 5,900 engineers (Bureau of Emigration).

Weak education and skills

Millions of children are out of school and most students learn little; technical and vocational training is limited and not linked to industry.

Current reference: Pakistan still has more than 25.37 million children aged 5-16 out of school, the Federal Education Minister told the National Assembly in May 2026. Sir Syed’s mission of educational uplift remains unfinished.

Official report / policy: The World Bank estimated Pakistan’s learning poverty at about 75%, three out of four children cannot read and understand a simple text by age 10, far above the South Asian average of 58%; the Economic Survey shows public spending on education stuck below 2% of GDP for years (1.5% in 2022-23).

Exclusion of young women

Female labour force participation is among the lowest in the world, so half of the youth bulge contributes little to the formal economy.

Slow, unstable growth

Boom-bust growth, high inflation and energy costs discourage the investment that creates jobs.

Current reference: According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 (11 June 2026), GDP grew 3.7%, the fastest in four years but below the 4.2% target, with agriculture at 2.89%, industry at 3.51% (large-scale manufacturing 6.1%) and per capita income at $1,901.

Frustration and polarisation

Unemployed, frustrated young people can be drawn into extremism, crime and political polarisation.

Syllabus book: Stephen P. Cohen et al., The Future of Pakistan (2011), argue that Pakistan is most likely to “muddle through”, and identify demography, the economy, militancy and the civil-military balance as the variables that will decide its future.

4. Ways Forward for Sustainable Economic Development

Skills and human capital

Fix foundational learning

Ensure every child learns to read and count by the end of primary school, and get out-of-school children back into education through flexible and non-formal programmes.

Demand-driven technical and vocational training

Expand technical and vocational training through bodies such as NAVTTC and provincial TEVTAs, designed with industry, with apprenticeships and recognised certification, including for jobs abroad.

Digital skills at scale

Train hundreds of thousands of young people in coding, digital marketing, design and AI-related skills, and connect them to the global gig economy.

Job creation

Export-led growth

Create jobs in value-added textiles, IT, pharmaceuticals, light engineering and agro-processing, as envisaged in Uraan Pakistan, rather than relying on consumption-led growth.

Current reference: The government’s Uraan Pakistan plan (launched 31 December 2024) rests on the “5Es”, Exports, E-Pakistan, Environment, Energy & Infrastructure, and Equity & Empowerment, and the Special Investment Facilitation Council (2023) was created to fast-track investment in industry, minerals, agriculture and IT.

Small businesses and start-ups

Make credit, registration and taxation easy for small and medium enterprises and start-ups; expand youth business loan schemes; and support incubators in universities.

Modern agriculture and rural jobs

Use young people’s skills to modernise agriculture, livestock, dairy, horticulture, food processing, and create rural non-farm jobs to slow migration to cities.

Sustainable and inclusive growth

Green jobs

Make the youth bulge the workforce of the energy transition, solar installation, energy efficiency, climate-resilient construction and environmental services.

Current reference: Pakistan’s solar boom: households and businesses imported about 45 GW of mostly Chinese solar panels over five or six years, roughly equal to the whole grid’s capacity, and grid demand fell by 4-5% in a year (Yale Environment 360, July 2025).

Bring young women into the economy

Provide safe transport, childcare, flexible and remote work, and skills for women; raising female participation is the single largest untapped source of growth.

Labour rights and decent work

Ensure that new jobs are decent jobs with fair wages and protection, so that growth reduces poverty.

Five pillars to turn the youth bulge into a dividend

Skills: education, TVET, digital
Jobs: exports, SMEs, IT, agriculture
Green growth: solar, climate jobs
Women: participation, safety, mobility
Voice: participation, student unions

Syllabus book: Christopher Candland, Labor, Democratization and Development in India and Pakistan (2007), shows how organised labour shaped economic policy in both countries, and argues that protecting workers’ rights strengthens both democracy and development.

Youth voice and stability

Participation and governance

Restore student unions, expand youth representation in local government and policymaking, and use digital platforms to engage youth, turning energy into participation rather than frustration.

Macroeconomic stability

None of these strategies will succeed without stable growth, low inflation, cheap energy and political stability that give investors confidence.

Current reference: Pakistan’s current $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (37 months, approved September 2024), with a $1.4 billion climate Resilience and Sustainability Facility, is its latest of more than twenty IMF programmes since 1958. On 8 October 2026 the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review, unlocking about $1.2 billion (total disbursed about $5.7 billion), on conditions including a primary surplus of 2% of GDP, tax reform, phasing out fuel subsidies, timely energy tariff adjustments, privatisation, a tight monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate.

5. Conclusion

Pakistan’s youth bulge is a historic opportunity with a limited window. If young people remain unskilled, unemployed or excluded, the bulge will fuel unemployment, brain drain and instability. If they are educated, skilled, employed in export, digital and green sectors, and given a voice, the same bulge can drive decades of sustainable growth, as it did in East Asia. The way forward is clear: invest in skills, create jobs, include young women, build a green and digital economy, and give youth a stake in the nation’s future.

Youth Bulge in Pakistan: CSS 2023 Solved Answer